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There is a table on Slew's download page called "Races to Watch" which contains horses that have recently won fast races. That isn't really an accurate title, but it was the best I could do at the time. They are really races that need to be analyzed for runners that might have performed very well but did not win.
Now, that is not to say that the winners do not bear scrutiny...they certainly do. Many may have performed in an elite fashion for their class. But factors such as track bias, weather, trips favorable or not, post position and so on might have affected the outcome. These factors need to be accounted for as you "watch" for them going forward. There are other variables that may play into NOT wanting to invest your hard earned ducats in a runner that just won a fast race. Not the least of which would be an awareness of the betting public that this horse might do it again! Today, the return was 11-1. Tomorrow, 8-5. That may not be an attractive wager.Further, winning races is not an easy task. Winning multiple races, especially back to back is even tougher. Also, do not forget the human element, as the trainer and/or ownership may place the horse into a scenario where winning is either highly unlikely or impossible. There are reasons...but that discussion falls under another topic. The hidden gem here are the horses that did not win! This is the essence of the key race and it's use in handicapping. Because identifying a superior heat gives us a basis upon which to judge those that ran well enough to win other races...just not this one on this day! And I'm reminded of the statement made by one of the handicapping names of note, whose notible name escapes me at this moment (Dave Litfin?) that the greatest handicapping tool ever invented was: wait for it...VIDEO TAPE! Of course we take this for granted now, what with video being available every moment of the day or night, on any platform, for anyone. But there was a time not too long ago, when replaying races on video tape was a gift from the gods...or Bell Labs...whichever you prefer! Still, do not take for granted the combination of identifying a superior race, and combining that with the use of historical video to identify a runner or runners who stand out in a losing effort. Watch for a layoff horse who was stretching his legs. Or fast charging stretch runner who was not going to beat a classier winner but showed good effort and poise in the lane. In these cases, a losing status and high morning line but a tough run in a fast heat may mean they take advantage of lesser competition next time out at a good price. Conversely, trainers will enter runners over their head because their last was a super fast effort against lesser, knowing that they "earned" the right to try at the higher level. Outclassed, the earth must shake for them to be successful. But do not forget that a mid pack placing in a stake will pay for a whole lot of oats. The reality is that not every horse is in it to win it. Every track needs their trainers to help fill races for full fields, and will reward them with races written for their best charges down the road. Bettors need to know this. So watch carefully when a promising young star makes a stunning middle move against a fast pace. That 5th place finish in an FHF rank of 4 can be valuable in the months ahead. Watch for a second place finisher or fast moving closer against a fast winner, as those horses can prove to be ready to take their next start. So taking note of the fast races on Slew's download page is a good starting point in preparing for the next few weeks or months. Those races have in them lots of losers, who will going forward, become nicely priced winners. Your job, Mr. Phelps...is to find them!
Posted: April, 2018
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